Despite the fond Republican hopes for a late swing in favour of Senator John McCain, the only question now is about the margin of victory that Senator Barack Obama can generate for the Democrats. In the last few days, Obama has maintained a consistent lead of over 7 per cent in the national opinion polls. Even more important he has for the first time managed to cross the 50 per cent barrier.

Pollsters say undecided voters, who now form around 7 per cent of likely voters, usually tend to break in favour of the Republicans. Even if McCain benefits from that, he is behind in so many important states that it may now be too late for him to make a comeback. Early post-mortems suggest that the Republicans have been outgunned in every department of the electoral game. While the economic crisis has surely helped the Democrats, Obama has out-thought McCain—whether it was the choice of a vice presidential running mate or running a disciplined campaign.

Despite his record as a moderate Republican, and his reputation for ‘maverick’ political positions against the party orthodoxy, McCain has found himself steadily losing the middle ground. In the primaries, McCain attracted many independent and Democratic voters raising the hope that he would campaign from the centre.

The decision to appease the right wing of the Party, which was not enthusiastic about his candidacy, might have been McCain’s biggest error. Choosing the Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, certainly energised the party base but put off many voters in the middle. As he sought to paint Obama as “un-American” and “socialist”, McCain failed to deliver a credible political message of his own.

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