In a moment of plain-speaking that is all-too-rare at summits of this sort, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown declared at the G-20 meeting of finance ministers this weekend that “we are only about halfway through dealing with the causes of the crisis.” Brown’s firmness that the troubles in the international economy that began with the collapse of Lehman Brothers over a year ago are not over is welcome — troubles that have, not too coincidentally, hastened the rise of the
G-20 as the major location for international co-ordination. That coordination was most on display whenit came to questions of whether it was time to exit the stimulus. There have been calls to do so in many major economies — the US, in particular, has seen some favourable numbers recently. But the release of more nuanced unemployment figures for that country, putting the real jobless rate in excess of 17 per cent, and the continuing struggles of several other members of the G-20 — especially Britain — stiffened the ministers’ spines. The sole exception? India; Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, speaking at the India Economic Forum on Sunday morning, clearly indicated that “next year” India will “wind this down.”
India simply does not have the resources that many other G-20 economies do. Yet stimulus packages should be thought of not just as government spending, but as monetary easing — which should be maintained for the foreseeable future — and reform, which can get production on a high-growth path again. India has much to learn from everyone else’s view of the international economic landscape. It also has much to learn, and painfully little to contribute, to discussions about international capital flows. The growing belief that some sort of “Tobin tax” — a miniscule levy on international short-term flows, used to stabilise international finance — is necessary, found many takers at the G-20. (The US’ Tim Geithner continued to sound unconvinced by the need for reform, though.) India’s stunted financial sector, and its limited openness, means that it should listen more and brag less as these discussions take place.
... contd.