Met says monsoon here but parts of N India in for erratic spell

Large parts of northern India,including Uttar Pradesh,Bihar and Delhi,have not got more than a drizzle and the latest predictions from climate models suggest that this situation is unlikely to change for another 8-10 days. Good rainfall in these areas can be expected only around the middle of this month,weather scientists said.

The current drizzle over Delhi and other parts of northern India is said to have been caused by the interaction of monsoon system winds with western disturbances. Once this ends in the next two days,the northern plains are likely to be dominated by westerlies which are hot and dry. This is likely to result in a rise in temperature in entire north India. As the western disturbances start moving east,some parts of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar are likely to receive rainfall over the next two days but these are going to be transient in nature.

The experts also see a weakening in monsoon flow over Arabian Sea from around July 10 which will bring down the amount of rainfall all over the country,including southern and western India which have received good rains till now.

Any further spurt in rainfall will have to wait for the revival of the monsoon which,as of now,is not being seen before July 15. “The situation cannot be described as alarming as of now but some worrying signals have certainly emerged. It might call for some shift in our planning,” a weather scientist said.

As on July 4,rainfall deficiency in the country as a whole had reached 14 per cent. Northwest India,which starts getting rains only in the last week of June,received 16 per cent less rains than normal,while central India was deficient by 27 per cent. Eastern and north-eastern regions have had 17 per cent deficiency. South India was the only region to have good rainfall,having received 7 per cent more rainfall than normal during the period.

The worst hit,however,are some parts of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Of the 41 districts in Uttar Pradesh,31 have had scanty (60 per cent or more of deficiency) or no rains at all. The other ten have had deficient rainfall. Similarly,in western Uttar Pradesh,28 out of 30 districts have had scanty or no rainfall at all. Only one has received normal rainfall,the other one remaining deficient.

As many as ten districts in Uttar Pradesh,including Chandauli,Farrukhabad,Kannauj,Kaushambi,Mirzapur and Pratapgarh,have 100 per cent deficiency,meaning they have received no rainfall this season.

The situation is not very different in Bihar where 21 out of 38 districts have received deficient or scanty rainfall.

This prevailing and accumulated deficiency can still be compensated in the later stages of the monsoon season,with the possibility of La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean promising to bring excess rainfall in August and September. But excessive rains in these two months also pose the danger of floods taking place,scientists said.