Planning a weekend getaway in the new year? Here is something you may want to add to your to-do list: check the weather forecast. And if you still believe the weathermans predictions can pass off as a joke,you may be 80 per cent wrong. The anonymous weatherman,who for decades has been ridiculed as his predictions of rain often resulted in a brilliantly sunny day,has now got his act together with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) taking definite steps to correct the errors. For the IMD,which predicts the weather for India,prediction rate this year has gone up to 8 correct out of 10,from 6 out of 10 just five years ago. So carry that umbrella when the IMD website forecasts rain,else 80 per cent times you will end up soaked. B P Yadav,director of IMD,attributes the increase in the rate of correct predictions to the improvements in the assimilation of data and their calculation,the latter called Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP). In 2007,the department launched its modernisation campaign and with the help of funds provided by the Ministry of Earth and Sciences it has upgraded obsolete equipment,brought in high-resolution computers,and with emphasis on research and development,now understands the intricacies of weather better. With the development in IT and communications,transfer of data has also become easier. The advanced IMD now gives out elaborate weather data of 100 cities on its website daily. The high-resolution computers make it easier to scan the satellite pictures received from the Kalpana-I. There are also the five Doppler radar stations in India,which can monitor a radius of 500 kilometres and issue advance warning against cyclones and thunderstorm. Says Yadav: We have improved not just in day-to-day (short range) predictions,but have also reduced mistakes in medium range (7 days),extended range (7-30 days) and long range (a season). False alarms,where we predict a severe phenomenon that does not eventually occur,have also reduced. The IMD director also elaborates on various improvements made in NWP through interactions with the World Meteorological Organisation,a specialised wing of the United Nations with its headquarters in Geneva. They also have tied up with several centres that study weather located at the IITs and IISC,Bangalore. The major jump for the IMD has,however,been in the dissemination of information. In the last century,weather alerts were sent as notes to government offices and the media,now all details are updated on its website. Not content with the hike in correct predictions rate,the IMD is striving for a better performance in 2010. No weather organisation can have 100 per cent accurate predictions. There are bound to be some mistakes,but we will try and reduce them further, Yadav adds.
