External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee’s double take on Tuesday, suggesting that the use of military force against Pakistan was not under consideration only to backtrack a few hours later, underlines the UPA government’s utter incoherence in managing the consequences of the Mumbai aggression. The pressure on our leaders to say “a few words” to the ubiquitous TV crews is understandable. It is unacceptable, however, for senior ministers to make statements that are liable for misinterpretation, at home and abroad, in the middle of a crisis — especially when the crisis involves a nuclear-armed neighbour. In the current dangerous context shaping up between New Delhi and Islamabad any imprecise or incomplete formulation by the top leadership creates conditions for miscommunication, misperception and unwanted escalation.From the moment the prime minister addressed the nation last Thursday, it was quite clear that India was contemplating a confrontation with Pakistan if it did not keep its word on denying its territory to anti-India terror groups. Those who matter in Islamabad and the wide world beyond clearly understood what the PM meant by extracting a cost from Pakistan. They also recognised that the PM had left deliberately vague when, where and how India might choose to escalate. Much of the South Asian crisis diplomacy unfolding this week, with the top US diplomat, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, and its top soldier, Admiral Mike Mullen, travelling to India and Pakistan, is about managing the space between India’s current restraint in the face of the Mumbai provocation and its threat of retribution if Pakistan does not cooperate. Mukherjee threatened that delicate balance when he first seemed to rule out the military option and tried to undo the damage a few hours later by ruling it in. If the first statement undermined the credibility of the Indian threat to retaliate, without which there is no incentive for the world to put pressure on Islamabad to act purposefully, the second suggested India was rushing into a war with Pakistan. Given the gravity of the strategic challenge that confronts India after Mumbai and the nuclear shadow that hangs over the region, New Delhi must urgently gain a firm control over its public message to its friends and adversaries. Even minor errors in crisis communication could lead to major irretrievable losses in the very difficult campaign that India has embarked upon.
