In a presidential poll in which the winner has been all but declared, the political frisson has to do with the final vote tally. There will be much reading between its lines, or figures. What do they tell us about the shifting equations within the parties, and between them? Is the UNPA over before it has begun, for instance? And in Gujarat, how many BJP MLAs could have cast their vote for the Congress candidate? Of all the curiosities, that last one is arguably the most fraught. After all, Gujarat goes to polls later this year. This will be the first time Narendra Modi goes to the people after leading a government for a full term. It will be a referendum on the patented Moditva that swept him to power after the terrible carnage five years ago and/or his attempted make-over into Development Man since. The Gujarat election will be decisive for the future direction of his party. So the big question is: to what effect will the dissidence brewing against Modi, as mirrored in the presidential vote tally, spill over when December comes?

The election in Gujarat may turn out to bear an uncanny similarity with the exercise to elect India’s president: it may be most gripping for the margins of victory and defeat. Regardless of whether Modi wins and loses, every vote will be counted. And for Modi and the BJP, the rumblings are unmistakable already. For most of his tenure as chief minister, Modi has cultivated a personality cult that has almost completely diminished and marginalised his party. It is said that he is unavailable to party MLAs and ministers who demand their share of the spoils of power. But the reality also has another dimension: he is inaccessible to his party colleagues. In the last five years, Modi has concentrated all power unto himself, starved his party, alienated his ideological parivar. The large anti-Modi faction in the Gujarat BJP may not have a prominent leader in charge after Keshubhai Patel all but threw in the towel, but it is supported by large sections of the state leadership of the RSS and VHP.

... contd.