Attention has focused largely on Gujarat rather than Himachal Pradesh — which is also going to the polls this month, because the electoral outcome in the state could well impact national politics. If Modi succeeds in pulling through despite the wide spectrum of forces ranged against him, the BJP may not necessarily be the gainer. The autocratic Modi is unlikely to allow his party to share the credit. In fact, the BJP central leadership will have to contend with a man who, bolstered by a second electoral victory, will assume he has a legitimate claim to play a decisive role in shaping the party’s future. Modi would be encouraged to believe that his tactics of divisive demagoguery, mud-slinging and cocking a snook at the judiciary and the rule of law have been vindicated.

A victorious Modi would push the BJP further towards hardline Hindutva, the consequences of which would be the party’s growing isolation. Already, the JD(U)’s Nitish Kumar has come openly against Modi for his attempts to polarise voters and the party’s few remaining allies in the NDA are looking increasingly uncomfortable. At the same time, if the Congress carries the day, in spite of the pollster’s negative forecasts, it would be encouraged to assume that the time is ripe to call for an early general election. It will be seen as a vindication of the government at the Centre and Gujarat’s negation of the politics of hate. An already demoralised BJP would find itself further marginalised.

... contd.