Bhutto’s assassination on December 27 was well planned. The firing on her from close range followed by the blasting of her car by a suicide bomber ensured that their target could not escape and no one would get close to her immediately after the incident. In the terrorists’ determination and tactical sophistication, this act was a step ahead from the usual suicide bombing. The deterioration of the security situation in the North West Frontier Province and Balochistan, desertions and poor performance of the security forces in Swat and other areas, the Lal Masjid episode, regular bomb blasts, and now the assassination of Pakistan’s tallest political leader shows that the overall security situation in Pakistan is in disarray.

The political situation in Pakistan has been delicate ever since Musharraf dismissed the country’s Supreme Court chief justice, Iftikhar Chowdhury, last year in March. That dismissal caused widespread street protests and eventually turned into a campaign for civilian-led democracy. Without political and civil support, the Pakistan army’s ability to handle Islamic militancy within its own borders stands seriously impaired.

Pakistan is faced with two major crises: Islamic militancy and waning confidence of civil society in Pervez Musharraf’s government. The long-term solution for both would be genuine democracy and socio-economic development. In the short run, however, both these problems are closely linked to the Pakistan army and its ability to enable the national polity and society to function.

The problem for Pakistan’s army is compounded now because it also faces a crisis of credibility, morale and confidence; the third worst after Indo-Pakistan 1971 and Kargil wars.

... contd.