Monsoon below normal,lower in Punjab and Haryana: Met

The total rainfall prediction for the June-September monsoon period is no longer “near normal” — it is now likely to be “below normal”,the IMD said. The prediction has a four per cent margin of error.

Though many parts of the country could have good showers next week,the IMD has forecast no more than 93 per cent of normal rain for July. For August,101 per cent rain is predicted. There is no prediction for September yet.

North-western states — Rajasthan,Delhi,western UP,Punjab,Haryana,Himachal,J&K — are likely to be worst hit,receiving only 81 per cent rainfall in the entire season. An area that gets 75 per cent or less rain is officially classified as drought-prone.

The north-eastern region,including Bihar and West Bengal,is predicted to get 92 per cent rainfall; the southern peninsular region,93 per cent. Central India is best placed,predicted to get 99 per cent for the season.

Today’s predictions come at a time when the government is struggling to rejuvenate the economy and quicken the rate of growth. An underperforming agriculture sector might have implications for the Food Security Act,which aims to offer a legal guarantee of food to poor families. A bad monsoon will also adversely affect rural purchasing power,and hit industrial production.

Weather scientists,however,said the situation was not alarming yet — and the worst was over.

“The downward revision in the forecast is because the loss in June is not being compensated in July and August. But as of now,the rest of the season is not looking bad,” said a Met expert.

According to IMD data,rainfall in June has been ‘highly deficient’ — off by 27 per cent or more — in 16 of the last 101 years. But in 11 of these years,the seasonal rainfall has been normal. In 1926,June rainfall was deficient by a record 48 per cent,but the seasonal rainfall ended up 7 per cent above normal.

Experts said the kharif crop may yet survive. Sowing has not been affected along the west coast,which has had good rain. In the north and north-west,there are still a few days to go for the normal date of the monsoon.

It should,however,have been raining in the swathe from the upper peninsula to Haryana,and Bihar and Orissa in the east,and this area is likely to feel the pinch. The situation is not beyond retrieval,experts said,though farmers will probably have to grow late-sowing varieties of crops like sorghum,millet and maize.

“If rains occur now according to predictions,I don’t think there is any reason to panic. Some areas in central India might have to go in for ‘dry sowing’ but elsewhere,not much harm has been done,” said Dr L S Rathore,head of the agrimet division of IMD.

The department also played down the adverse impact that an El Nino might have on the monsoon in the latter half of the season. Latest observations in the Pacific,suggesting a 60 per cent chance of El Nino conditions this season,had raised concerns.

Scientists,however,pointed out that there is no direct correlation between El Nino and the monsoon. There have been normal monsoons in El Nino years — like 1997. Also,there’s at least a month’s lag between the El Nino and its impact on the monsoon. The current El Nino is still developing,and is probably unlikely to have a major impact.