Monsoon may hit Delhi only by July 7

Even the anticipated rain around July 2 is uncertain. Experts said the interaction of monsoon winds with a mid-latitude westerly trough over the region could perhaps produce a couple of showers,but the eastward movement of the westerlies is likely to shift the rains towards western UP immediately afterward.

The rainfall situation in Delhi was “touch and go”,said a weather scientist.

Around the second week of July,however,a more organised low pressure area is likely to develop over Delhi and northwestern India,brightening the prospects for a long spell of sustained rainfall. Once it starts raining in Delhi around July 7,experts predict a smooth advance of the monsoon into Punjab,Haryana and Himachal Pradesh.

Through this period,central and eastern India will continue to get uninterrupted rains. The good news is that the monsoon flow which was earlier seen to be getting into a ‘break condition’ after July 4,is no longer likely to do so. Scientists believe that the monsoon would continue to be in an active phase until at least July 15,by which time it should cover the entire country.

The monsoon advanced further on Monday,covering all of Gujarat,Madhya Pradesh,Chhattisgarh,Orissa,West Bengal and Sikkim,Bihar,Jharkhand and some parts of eastern Uttar Pradesh.

The Indian Meteorological Department said conditions were conducive for its advance over some other areas of Rajasthan,remaining parts of Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand in the next two days.