Monsoon: North by Southwest

A fortnight since its onset,monsoon stays on track.

Overnight rain in many parts of northern India helped bring the temperatures down on Wednesday. While this respite from the heat is rather temporary,the rain being a result of western disturbance,the northern region is not a long way away from welcoming the monsoon rains which have behaved very normally this season.

Weather scientists believe the heat wave in northern India will continue till at least the end of this week after which the mercury will head downward. Most parts of northern India will start getting pre-monsoon showers from next week.

The northern limit of the monsoon now extends from Porbandar,Nashik,Kanker in Chhattisgarh to Ranchi.

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The southwest monsoon has further advanced over some more parts of Maharashtra,most parts of Telengana and Orissa,the remaining parts of coastal Andhra Pradesh,Bay of Bengal,West Bengal and some parts of Chhattisgarh,Jharkhand and Bihar, the India Meteorological Department said today in its mid-day bulletin.

Conditions are favourable for further advance over more parts of Maharashtra,rest of Telangana,Bihar,Jharkhand,Orissa and Chhattisgarh and some parts of east Madhya Pradesh during the next 2-3 days, it said.

A cyclonic formation that was developing in the Arabian Sea could have disrupted the monsoons course but has dissipated now. As a result,the northward progress of the monsoon is being seen as smooth over the next few days.

The simultaneous development of a low pressure area in the Bay of Bengal,off the coast of Orissa,is likely to direct the rain-bearing winds towards Bihar,Jharkhand,Bengal,Orissa and eastern UP. It is set to propel the progression of the monsoon over the rest of northern and northwestern India over the next one week.

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Over the next two to three days,many parts of eastern and central India can expect to start getting monsoon rainfall. Patna should start getting rains around the 18th of this month and Lucknow about two days later, said a weather scientist.

A strong surge from the Bay of Bengal side would ensure that the current dominance of dry westerly winds over northern India is replaced bythat of rain-bearing easterly winds. This is likely to start next week and spread to almost all of northern India in a matter of days. Many places in this region are likely to start getting isolated rainfall from next week.

The surge from the Bay of Bengal side would also ensure rain in parts still dry in Andhra Pradesh,Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. The Met department has predicted widespread rain over Orissa and Gangetic West Bengal starting Saturday. Widespread rain is also expected in the Northeast,and in Vidarbha,Chhattisgarh,Andhra Pradesh,interior Karnataka,Kerala,Lakshadweep and Andaman & Nicobar Islands.