Monsoon on track,to hit Kerala coast on June 1: IMD

The south west monsoon is likely to hit the Kerala coast on June 1. According to preliminary observations made by the India Meteorological Department.

The south west monsoon is likely to hit the Kerala coast on June 1. According to preliminary observations made by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) here,there is nothing to indicate that the monsoon will arrive before or after the scheduled date.

Our observations put the date as June 1,the date set for monsoon to touch the Kerala coast, said Dr Sivananda Pai,director of IMDs National Climate Centre which issues the forecast. While an official forecast will be issued on May 16,Pai said it was too early to make any weather predictions at present.

In the last four years,the monsoons have arrived before June 1. According to IMD records,monsoon touched the Kerala coast on May 23 last year. In 2008,the south west monsoon hit the Kerala coast on May 31,in 2007 it was May 28,and in 2006 it was May 26, said Pai.

However,in 2005,the monsoon was delayed to June 7,and the year before that it was June 3. According to Met department officials the movement of the south west monsoon into south east Bay of Bengal can be monitored only when there is strengthening of monsoon winds and widespread rainfall. The IMD takes into consideration six factors: minimum temperature over north-west India,pre-monsoon rainfall peak over southern peninsula,outgoing long wave radiation over south China sea,lower tropospheric zonal wind over southeast Indian ocean,upper tropospheric zonal wind over the east equatorial Indian ocean and outgoing long wave radiation over south west Pacific region.

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