Monsoon outlook bleak,23 pc shortfall already

“It is true that the conditions are not very favourable as of now. June has seen deficient rainfall. But it is still early days. Hopefully,July and August will bring better rainfall,” said Dr Swati Basu,director of the Noida-based National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting,who is also officiating as the director general of the Indian Meteorological Department as of now.

Dr M Mahapatra of the IMD said a revival of the monsoon winds was not expected before the end of this month. “The monsoon is in a weak phase as of now. It is expected to strengthen by the end of this month or the first few days of next month. Currently there is no cyclonic circulation,or a low pressure area,over the Bay of Bengal and the easterly winds are weak because of which the pull of the monsoon winds over north and northwestern parts of the country is not happening,” he said.

But he also said it was not a hopeless situation as yet. “Around June 15,the deficiency was about 42 per cent. Now it has come down to 23 per cent. So things can improve further. July is going to be absolutely crucial. That is when the paddy sowing will take place. That requires at least five inches of standing water. If it rains well in July — and the prediction says it would be almost normal — we should not have much problem as far as sowing is concerned,” he said.

The overall rainfall is almost certain to get affected. In its updated forecast last week,the Met department made a downward revision in its forecast,bringing down its prediction for the four-month season to 96 per cent from the 99 per cent it had predicted in April. But even that seems to be an optimistic estimate,weather scientists say. June accounts for about 18 per cent of the total rainfall in the monsoon season — about 16 cm of the total 89 cm rainfall that the country as a whole gets in the four-month season. With the monsoon in a weak phase,the current 23 per cent deficiency is likely to only increase. It is likely to get about 30 per cent by the end of this month,which will be extremely difficult to be made up.

There is the additional factor of El Nino — difference in sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific region — developing towards the latter half of the monsoon season. El Nino is not considered well for a good monsoon though there is no one-to-one correlation that has been established.

Going by the present conditions,northwestern India — Punjab,Haryana,Rajasthan,Himachal Pradesh,Jammu and Kashmir,western Uttar Pradesh — is likely to have a delayed monsoon.