Monsoon outlook bleak,23 per cent shortfall already

Unless there is very good rainfall in September,it is difficult to see how the current deficiency can be compensated for.”The conditions are not very good as of now. The monsoon winds are expected to get strengthened by the end of this month or the first few days of next month. Currently there is no cyclonic circulation,or a low-pressure area,over the Bay of Bengal and the easterly winds are weak because of which the pull of the monsoon winds over north and northwestern parts of the country is not happening,” Dr M Mahapatra of the Indian Meteorological Department said.

But he said it was not a hopeless situation as yet. “Around June 15,the deficiency was about 42 per cent. Now it has come down to 23 per cent. So things can improve further. July is going to be absolutely crucial. That is when the paddy-sowing will take place. That requires at least five inches of standing water. If it rains well in July—and the prediction says it would be almost normal—we should not have much problem as far as sowing is concerned,” he said.

But the overall rainfall is almost certain to get affected. In its updated forecast last week,the Met department made a downward revision in its forecast,bringing down its prediction for the four month season to 96 per cent from the 99 per cent it had predicted in April. But even that seems to be an optimistic estimate,weather scientists say.

June accounts for about 18 per cent of the total rainfall in the monsoon season—about 16 cm of the total 89-cm rainfall that the country as a whole gets in the four-month season. With the monsoon in a weak phase,the current 23 per cent deficiency is likely to only increase. It is likely to get about 30 per cent by the end of this month,which will be extremely difficult to be made up.

Going by the present conditions,northwestern India—Punjab,Haryana,Rajasthan,Himachal Pradesh,Jammu and Kashmir,western Uttar Pradesh—is likely to have a delayed monsoon. According to the latest forecast by the Met department,this region is also expected to get the lowest amount of rainfall amongst the four broad geographical areas of the country.