With rains having already reached Andaman Islands, officials at India Meteorological Department (IMD) here said monsoon will hit Kerala a couple of days before June 1.

The IMD officials told The Indian Express that considering the present monsoon pattern, the onset of the monsoon over the southern coast will be advanced by a few days.

“This year, the south westerlies have set in the Andaman sea five days before the usual date of May 15. The convection (cloud formation) too has increased. The monsoon movement is expected northwards depending on the favourable atmospheric and oceanic conditions around the region,” the official added.

Over the past few days, the increase in temperature of entire Asian landmass has been observed which is favourable for early onset of monsoon. The officials also added that the winds coming from the southern hemisphere can be influenced by pressure patterns over that region.

The National Climate Centre (NCC) of the IMD, which is instrumental in determining the long range forecast for monsoon onset over Kerala, is collating data from all centres and will soon come out with a detailed report on the exact date of monsoon onset using their upgraded monsoon model.

Two years back, the IMD in Pune had indigenously developed a new statistical model to forecast the monsoon over Kerala. This model has a forecast of plus or minus three days. Based on this model, in 2005 and 2006, IMD had issued a long range forecast for the monsoon onset over Kerala.