More delay in rains

However,weather scientists believe that Mumbai is unlikely to get its first monsoon showers before June 22,a delay of almost two weeks from the normal date of June 10.

The likely monsoon revival after three days,scientists said,would not be uniform. Most of the build-up was being seen in the Bay of Bengal while a corresponding build-up in the Arabian Sea was missing. That means that while regions in eastern India like Orissa and northern Andhra Pradesh can expect rains around June 19,areas on the west coast,north from Ratnagiri including north Konkan and Mumbai,will have to wait for a few more days.

Another concern is that the revival of the monsoon is likely to take place at lower latitudes. The northward progress,therefore,is likely to start not from southern Maharashtra where it is currently stationed but from further down south in Kerala and Karnataka. That would create conditions similar to the one that prevailed during the onset of monsoon in Kerala last month and bring good rains in southern India and the north-eastern region.

Normally,by now,it should have been raining not just in Mumbai but also in most of central and western India including Madhya Pradesh,Chhattisgarh,parts of Gujarat and parts of Bihar and Jharkhand. But delay in the progress of monsoon means most of these areas have remained dry or got very little rainfall. The country as a whole,therefore,is likely to be rain-deficient in the month of June.

Sowing of kharif crops in central and north peninsular India is thus likely to be delayed. While the sowing season in north India extends till the first week of July,farmers in central and north peninsular region are generally done with the sowing by the third week of June.

The silver lining,however,is that the phenomenon known as Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) — a wind anomaly going around the globe in the equatorial region — is approaching the Indian subcontinent again. When travelling over the Indian subcontinent around this time of the year,it helps to trigger the monsoon. It was instrumental in the early onset of monsoon last month and scientists believe would again help the region in getting good rainfall.