There is a totally unreal aspect to the discussion on India’s stand on climate change. Some of our protagonists are stuck in the original Kyoto mould. But there was Bali, the original targets had slipped, so the base year was changed and the intent to cut kept. But that was only the atmospherics. The real issue was the new stand of countries like the US, China, and of other large countries.

By this time there was recognition that large countries enter the debate “in a differential manner” to use the jargon. They represent quantum jumps. In a model for India prepared by Kirit Parikh and me, in a business-as-usual scenario India starts demanding two billion tonnes of power-grade coal. Now we have plenty of power-grade coal; but we simply cannot burn two billion tonnes of coal with today’s technology! Forget others, it would burn out our own lungs.

These studies make the point through quantitative models that large countries, when they grow fast, make quantum jump impacts in the global economy. Kirit redid the numbers for the Planning Commission long-term energy work where he changed the base numbers but the increments remained largely intact. With the quantum jumps negotiators from the period of slow growth have an ostrich-like tendency to get into denial mode. Also the tendency is to talk non-alignment. This is completely misguided; for actually both Nehru and most certainly Rajiv Gandhi, who refashioned doctrine for a fast-growing Indian economy, dealt with these problems in a dynamic mode. They had little patience for those who couldn’t keep up intellectually.

... contd.