Most of the fix for the coming elections is already in — manipulated voters’ lists, gerrymandering, intimidation of opposition candidates and arm-twisting of local influentials to support the king’s party. The rigging will be selective on election day, outside of the view of foreigners and the media as far as possible.

The primary purpose of the regime would be to influence the outcome both in terms of who gets elected and how many seats each party gets. Thus, the opposition might get a significant number of seats but individuals with an independent mind could be made to lose.

After the elections, a second round of manipulation will take place to create factions within each party and to manage a pliant coalition. This would be similar to what happened in 2002. A coalition cobbled together in the same manner as 2002 after a fraudulent election euphemistically described as ‘flawed but acceptable’ by the US government will not advance democracy in Pakistan.

If the ban on a twice-elected prime minister running for a third term is not lifted, there will be no real choice for Pakistanis because then Musharraf would be able to appoint anyone he likes as prime minister.

Musharraf’s desire to exclude Bhutto and Sharif and thereby pave the way for choosing a prime minister himself is another sign that he is following the Hosni Mubarak role model. But while Musharraf may want to emulate the Egyptian model, Pakistani civilians will not roll over and play dead. Prolonged unrest might follow a rigged poll in Pakistan.

... contd.