Projection of another hung Assembly will not surprise any Uttar Pradesh watcher. The last time any party got a clear majority in an Assembly election in the state was in 1991. Politics of caste polarization, absence of fresh agendas and impossible personal egos have closed the possibility of a stable majority in the state.

The run-up to this Assembly election promised something different as the BSP took an early lead. It appeared that Mayawati’s experiment of forging a Dalit-upper caste alliance was opening the possibility of a majority. But a comprehensive pre-poll survey conducted at the starting point of the race almost rules out this possibility. The Indian Express - CNN-IBN - CSDS pre-poll survey of Uttar Pradesh points to a two-horse race that is likely to end in yet another hung Assembly.

If the elections were held in the entire state in the third week of March, the SP and the BSP would have been the front-runners, leaving all others far behind.

Surprisingly, the ruling SP was marginally ahead of the BSP by about one percentage point and was likely to end where it was last time, around 145-155 seats. The BSP appeared set for its best ever performance, but well short of the magical figure of 202 seats. It was likely to end between 140-150 seats.

The BJP and the Congress are at risk of falling off the chart.

Despite getting Kalyan Singh back and its carefully crafted alliance with the Apna Dal, the BJP was a poor third in the race, about 10 percentage points behind the two front-runners. This could bring the BJP down to about 45-55 seats, its worst performance in the last two decades.

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