With their fate sealed in the EVMs which would open today, most candidates and their close associates in Haryana have been spending sleepless nights.

Bhupinder Singh Hooda is almost certain to become the chief minister again. However, no one, including the ruling Congress, believes that the outcome could be anywhere near a re-run of the recent Lok Sabha elections which the Congress swept by bagging nine of the 10 seats. It certainly encouraged the party to seek preponement of the polls by seven months, but it could not have been unaware of the differences of factors between the two elections.

Interestingly, the satta bazaar has been recording declining number of seats for the ruling Congress since the elections were announced.

At that time, the stakes were put at over 65 seats for the Congress out of a total of 90. A couple of days before the voting on October 13, the best bets were laid for 56 seats for the Congress and 17 for the INLD. The latest figure is 51 for the Congress and 19 for the INLD. The BJP, BSP and the Haryana Janhit Congress (HJC) are finding few who would bet on them.

A number of factors like voting trends, multiplicity of contests, division of Jat and non-Jat voters, issues at stake in the Assembly elections as opposed to the recent Lok Sabha elections, crucial role of rebels and even more significant but silent role of the disgruntled party leaders would impact the political activities after the results are out. The five cornered contests, with none of the five major parties reaching a pre-poll alliance, have complicated the calculations and assessment by parties.

... contd.