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‘Mumbai attack may trigger Indian military response’

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    US intelligence officials said that there is mounting evidence that Lashkar was responsible for Mumbai attacks.
    US officials fear that should the firm evidence emerge that the Mumbai terror attacks were planned and directed from within Pakistan, it would certainly escalate tension between the neighbouring countries and could also provoke an Indian military response, even strikes against militants, a media report said on Saturday.

    Quoting the officials in Washington, 'The New York Times' said there was no evidence that Pakistani government had any role in the attacks.

    But American intelligence and counter-terrorism officials told the paper that there is mounting evidence that a Pakistani militant group, most likely Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), was responsible for deadly attacks in Mumbai.

    An American counter-terrorism official was quoted as saying that there was strong evidence that LeT had a ‘maritime capability’ and would have been able to mount the sophisticated operation in Mumbai.

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    However, the officials, the ‘Times’ said, cautioned that they had reached no firm conclusions about who was responsible for the attacks, or how they were planned and carried out.

    Nevertheless, they said that evidence gathered in the past two days pointed to a role for LeT or possibly another militant group Jaish-e-Muhammad, which also has a track record of attacks against India.

    The American and Indian intelligence services, the ‘Times’ said, have used communications intercepts to tie the Pakistan-based militants to the terrorist strikes.

    Indian officials may also be gleaning information from at least one captured gunman who participated in the Mumbai attacks.

    The paper quoted an Indian intelligence official as saying that during the siege, the militants have been using non-Indian cellphones and receiving calls from outside the country, evidence that in part led Indian officials to speak publicly about the militants' external ties.

    The LeT denied any responsibility for the terrorist strikes.

    But American intelligence agencies were quoted as saying that the group has received some training and logistic support in the past from Pakistan's powerful spy service ISI, and that Pakistan's government has long turned a blind eye to the LeT camps on the Kashmir border.

    American and Indian officials, the paper said, were pursuing the possibility that the attackers arrived off the coast of Mumbai in a large ship and then boarded smaller boats before initiating their attack.

    They have for years blamed LeT for a campaign of violence against high-profile targets throughout India, including the December 2001 attack on Indian Parliament and an August 2007 strike at an amusement park in Hyderabad, the paper said,

    Noting that at times, Indian officials have also said Jaish-e-Muhammad was responsible for the attack on Parliament.

    That attack prompted the Bush administration to try to freeze LeT's assets and press Gen Pervez Musharraf, Pakistan's President at the time, to crack down on the group's training operations in Pakistan, the paper recalled.

    A State Department report released in 2008 called LeT ‘one of the largest and most proficient of the Kashmir-focused militant groups’.

    The report said that the LeT drew financing in part from Pakistani expatriates in the Middle East, and that it used a front organisation called Jamaat ud-Daawa to coordinate charitable activities.

    It said the actual size of the group was unknown, but estimated it at ‘several thousand’ members, the paper noted.

    Recently, the ‘Times’ said, some of the group's operations have shifted from Kashmir to Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas and even to Afghanistan to attack US troops.

    American officials and terrorism experts were quoted as saying that the group had not sent large numbers of operatives into Afghanistan, but had embedded small teams with Taliban units to gain fighting experience.

    "Afghanistan is an operating war zone, so they can get active training as the Kashmir front has slowed down a bit," the ‘Times’ quoted Seth Jones, a terrorism expert at the RAND Corporation, as saying.

    The group is believed by experts to have at least a loose affiliation with al-Qaeda, the paper said, adding that in March 2002, a Qaeda lieutenant, Abu Zubaydah, was captured in an LeT safe house in Faisalabad, Pakistan.

    Lashkar-e-Toiba is not known to have singled out Westerners in past terrorist attacks, as the gunmen in Mumbai seem to have done. But one counter-terrorism official told the paper that the group ‘has not pursued an exclusively Kashmiri agenda’ and that it might certainly go after Westerners to advance broader goals.

    Meanwhile, a leading US think tank has said that blaming the Mumbai terrorist attacks on Pakistan could plunge New Delhi and Islamabad into worst crisis since 2002.

    In 2002, it notes, that after a terrorist attack on the Indian Parliament, a near nuclear confrontation took place between the two countries in which the US brokered a stand down.

    The shape of the current crisis will consist of demands that the Pakistanis take immediate steps to suppress Islamist radicals across the board, but particularly in Kashmir, it says, adding that New Delhi will need to demand that this action be immediate and public.

    "This demand will come parallel to US demands for same action and, and threats by incoming US President Barack Obama to force greater cooperation from Pakistan," says Strategic Forecasting (Stratfor).

    It is not clear, Stratfor says, the degree to which the Pakistani government can control the situation.

    "But the Indians will have no choice but to be assertive, and the United States will move along the same line. Whether it is the current government in India that reacts, or one that succeeds doesn't matter. Either way, India is under enormous pressure to respond," it adds.

    Therefore, the events point to a serious crisis not simply between Pakistan and India, but within Pakistan as well, with the government caught between foreign powers and domestic realities. Given the circumstances, massive destabilisation is possible, it says.

    In an analysis, it says that in the current situation, the demands will be even more intense. The Indians and Americans will have a joint interest in forcing the Pakistani government to act decisively and immediately. Pakistan, Stratfor's analysis notes, has warned that such pressure could destabilise Pakistan.

    mumbai attacks By: alex | 01-Dec-2008 Reply | Forward India should prepare for low intensity conflicts . Small groups well armed , well trained . Precise surgical operations. Destroy terrorist dens , training bases in pakistan. No frontal conflict with the PAKISTAN ARMY . Forget about dreams of a " blue water navy " waste of money. Look closer to your shores. Better buy Kevlar, night sights, special weapons " shoot around the corner " ... get in touch with the western ( israeli !!) special forces and learn something from them.
    Mumbai Terror AftermathBy: Mike Vig | 30-Nov-2008 Reply | Forward Sarma is so correct to point out that after every attack we go back to sleep after 1 week. Unfortunately, gutless people who are scared themselves happen to govern us. They look for a US or a UN permission to save our own citizens
    Mumbai AttacksBy: Deshdrohi Congressi | 29-Nov-2008 Reply | Forward We have captured one terrorist. We will instruct the ATS to torture him to give a false statement that RSS, VHP were behind the attacks so that we can use that as an election stategy win next elections.
    Tit for tatBy: Vijay | 29-Nov-2008 Reply | Forward There is no point in talking to Pakistan about terror troubling India.After having lost three wars,they are playing a proxy war with much low budget causing more casualities of police and defence personnel than any war.that too at a modest budget and in our territory.the element of surprise goes to their advantage.they choose the venue.Therefore,India must now counteract using the same technique as suggested by Ahmad and Abbas.In fact, Indiraji had done this in bangladesh in the initial stages before our army liberated it. The present generation of Gandhis should take a leaf from her.That will be a key to their political victory over others rather than minority appeasement technique that has become obsolete.
    MMS, Sonia, Lalu, Paswan and Karunanidhi enjoying Iftaar party nowBy: Kaushik | 29-Nov-2008 Reply | Forward UPA and its allies won't attack terrorit camps in Pakistan as they are busy in enjaying Iftaar party on the co-rpses dead.
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