Five, the Al-Qaeda, which has long sought an unhindered territorial space for itself, has declared an open war against the Musharraf regime in Pakistan and has unleashed some bold suicide attacks, including on high value army targets. Six, the Taliban now has a credible sanctuary among fellow-Pashtun tribesmen in Pakistan and its resistance to an international military presence in Afghanistan has an Islamic as well as an ethnic dimension. Seven, and last, frustrated at the Pakistan Army’s inability or unwillingness to control the sources of terrorism inside its own territory, the international coalition has stepped up its cross-border attacks across the Durand Line. As a political failure looms large in Afghanistan, the Bush administration is under growing pressure to disregard Pakistan’s territorial sovereignty. Last week’s offer by the chief of the US Central Command, Admiral William Fallon, to send US troops into Pakistan’s border is a taste of future scenarios in Pakistan.

Taken together, these trends point to Pakistan’s dangerous loss of territorial control over its tribal frontiers to the west. For the first time since independence, Pakistan faces an existential threat to its security from its western borders rather than the eastern frontier with India. It is this structural shift in Pakistan, rather than the question of democracy or the personal fortunes of General Musharraf, that is consequential for India. If the Pakistani army fails to regain control over its western borderlands, the entire subcontinent will pay for a region-wide surge of religious extremism and terrorism.

As it comes to terms with an unusual security challenge from its west, India must construct a different template for its Pakistan policy. New Delhi must move from a mere refusal to take advantage of Pakistan’s current internal crisis to a series of considered step — including troop reductions in J&K and greater cooperation across the international border — to signal India’s positive support for Pakistan’s territorial integrity.

... contd.