A referendum will be held on a draft constitution, which is supposed to pave the way for elections promised in 2010. The draft calls for a multi-party system in which the military will retain key powers. Despite the cyclone, the junta plans to hold the referendum on May 10, but human rights activists ask: How can one have a referendum when people are dying or missing? The opposition has asked citizens to vote “no” to the constitution while the junta has run a media campaign saying “vote yes” because it is a “national duty”.

Two scenarios can play out in Myanmar: the first, a more likely one, is where the junta reverts to its repressive tactics. In the aftermath of the cyclone, one may see a resurgence of demonstrations over the mismanagement of relief work. Hungry crowds of cyclone victims may storm shops as the junta delays international volunteers by refusing them visas and access. This would drive the country back to its international pariah status, leading to more deprivation for its people — in 2005, Myanmar’s per capita GDP was $217, placing it among the 20 poorest countries in the world.

The second scenario is more optimistic. Disasters can heal deep divisions. The 2004 tsunami saw Aceh separatists reach a peace accord with the Indonesian government, although it didn’t have the same effect on the LTTE. This scenario would see a window open for a political arrangement acceptable to both the junta and the opposition.

But this requires pro-active moves by three sets of actors: first, the junta has to be open to international aid and work with locals (including dissidents). Second, the pro-democracy protesters have to engage with their oppressors. The military is the only functioning institution. The pro-democracy protesters have a handful of factors in their favour. First of all, they have a strong rallying figure in Aung San. Secondly, shifts to democracy by regional states like Nepal, Bhutan and Pakistan may boost their morale. Finally, the international community is on their side, since the United States and others have been calling for a regime change for years. These factors, in conjunction with cyclone relief, could help some form of national reconciliation.

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