India has every reason to be pleased with the latest National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) from Washington, which asserts with “high confidence” that Iran has halted its nuclear weapons programme since 2003.

The dramatic reversal of Washington’s collective wisdom — an NIE is the consensus view among the many spook outfits in the US — on Tehran’s nuclear ambitions should reduce the salience of the Iran factor that had dominated the recent discourse on Indo-US relations in Washington and New Delhi.

To be sure, the US review of Iran’s nuclear weapon programme, of course, is not in any way related to considerations of its ties with India. Its consequences, too, could be much larger than the future of the Indo-US deal. After the less alarmist assessment on Tehran’s nuclear weapon programme, the US debate on Iran is unlikely to remain the same. As Democrats and the administration reposition themselves, we could see important changes in US policy towards Iran, Iraq and Afghanistan.

The US NIE on Iran (available at www.dni.gov/press_releases/ 20071203_release.pdf) says, “Tehran’s decision to halt its nuclear weapon programme suggests it is less determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging since 2005.” Even more important is the explicit suggestion by the American intelligence community that Iran might be prepared to continue its suspension of the nuclear weapon programme if sufficient political carrots were offered to it by the US and the international community. “Our assessment that Iran halted the programme in 2003 primarily in response to international pressure indicates Tehran’s decisions are guided by a cost-benefit approach rather than a rush to a weapon irrespective of the political, economic and military costs.”

... contd.