The 35 member board of governors of the IAEA, which must approve the special safeguards agreement with India and the 45-nation NSG, which must support the Indo-US nuclear deal, usually arrive at decisions on the basis of a consensus. China, a member of both bodies, will have a say in letting the international community resume civilian nuclear cooperation with India.

The indications from Beijing are not auspicious. China is the only nuclear weapon power that has expressed reservations against the Indo-US nuclear deal. While Russia and France have been enthusiastic about the Indian nuclear market, and Britain has taken a political decision in favour of New Delhi, Beijing has grumbled. China’s main argument is that it is fundamentally wrong to change the global non-proliferation regime for the sake of one country. Any change in the rules, Beijing argues, must be based on universal criteria.

Parity for Pakistan

China’s emphasis on “principled criteria” for any changes in the global non-proliferation regime will be seen by New Delhi as a barely disguised attempt to get Pakistan the same benefits that India is about to gain from the nuclear agreement with the US. While the US has unambiguously rejected pleas from Pakistan for a nuclear deal, some gullible Europeans appear to have bought Beijing’s line on “universal criteria”. Meanwhile, China has completed negotiations with Pakistan to supply additional nuclear reactors. That agreement will have no international legitimacy until the US and the NSG offer a nuclear exception of the kind that is being processed for India.

China’s objective appears to be simple. If Pakistan does not get the right for civilian nuclear cooperation, India should also be denied that opportunity.

Indian backlash

New Delhi, however, is not impressed with China’s arguments. India’s foreign policy mandarins smirk at China’s new “principled concern” for the global non-proliferation regime. After all, China has for long been one of the main proliferators of nuclear and missile technology.

China might bet that it has nothing to lose from this campaign, so long as the Europeans and other “white knights” like New Zealand dance on its behalf in the NSG. For New Delhi, continued Chinese opposition to the Indo-US deal would only confirm the thesis that Beijing is determined to perpetuate “nuclear parity” between India and Pakistan.

If China prevents India’s access to civilian nuclear cooperation after having transferred nuclear weapons and missile technology to Pakistan, it would invite a strong popular backlash from India.

New Delhi is too proud to plead with Beijing to end its covert and overt opposition to the nuclear deal. India, however, hopes that China understands the consequences of preventing India from taking its rightful place in the global nuclear order and will not come in the way.

A role for CPM?

If there is one force that could help prevent a needless crisis in Sino-Indian relations, it is the CPM. During her tenure as PM, Indira Gandhi was very adept at using the CPI to send messages to the Kremlin. Would the UPA government consider a similar strategy with the CPM?

The Left parties have made a big issue of India’s foreign policy autonomy in the debate on the nuclear agreement with the US. They will soon have to come to terms with the reality that while the US is seeking a revision of the global nuclear order to accommodate India, Beijing is coming in the way.

The Left will also have to recognise that after China scuttled India’s campaign for a permanent seat in the United Nations

Security Council, marginalised India from the Asian institution building, and refused to back India’s recent bid for Asian Games, New Delhi is increasingly sceptical of the prospects for political cooperation with Beijing. If the CPM is serious about promoting Sino-Indian relations, it should launch a political effort to get Beijing’s support for the Indo-US nuclear deal.

The writer is a professor at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore