And just as India’s economic vitality has shown, and should continue to show, signs of resilience, India’s political vibrancy has demonstrated, and will go on demonstrating, its robustness. This has been a year in which elections everywhere have shown that working democracies can deliver change, or at least can work as vehicles for delivering aspirations for change. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama showed that in America. In our neighbourhood, the year began with elections ending military rule in Pakistan, and closed with elections ending military rule in Bangladesh — those last with a turnout of over 80 per cent, in a rebuke to those who would condemn politics as unconnected to ordinary people. Similarly, in our own democracy, state assembly elections towards the end of the year showed record turnouts, and so did the free, fair, and epochal elections in troubled Jammu and Kashmir.
To keep our economy and our politics vibrant, we will need to think very hard about several looming questions. The first question is on what happens to the economy. The effects of the global crisis on India will only get more severe in the coming year. Speeding up reform and boosting investment have never been more crucial. One critical lesson from the recent past: structural reforms during a slowdown pay off big. Reforms undertaken during the 1997-2000 slowdown helped propel the post-2003 nine per cent growth phase. The economy cannot be allowed to sputter at this time; not only will the political cost be incalculable, but the world is watching how we recover, and we need to keep capital flowing in.
On a separate front, we also have to forge a productive approach to the Pakistan conundrum and how best to extract real commitment from our recalcitrant neighbour. We have to exercise all our diplomatic wiles and enlist friends and allies to step up pressure. This means India’s diplomacy with America will be vital in 2009 for more than the obvious reasons. Obama’s America will be one of 2009’s most exciting stories but for India, the president-elect will have to deliver on a very prosaic front. He will need to tell a state apparatus in Pakistan comfortable with terrorism that that option is over. Because the world should not think in 2009 that memories of the Mumbai attack will fade, that India will go back to status quo ante.
Status quo on one thing will be nice, though. In a few months, India will choose a government. If either the Congress or the BJP manage to create a workable coalition, we can be reasonably assured that governance will continue on an even keel, insulated from excessive political manoeuvring. There is also greater consensus than previously, at least between the two big parties, on the truly pressing issues. Worldwide, 2009 is the year of aftermath. It is the sober morning after. As solutions are sought for last year’s havoc, India can draw cheer from feeling somewhat surer about itself.