All these developments show that post-election challenges and political equations will not be easy to handle. As the country is poised for a hung constituent assembly scenario, the Maoist faction is almost certain to stake its claim to form the government on the sole plea that it is the only legitimate agent of change. G. P. Koirala, whose name is, almost synonymous with power, is equally certain to invoke the TINA factor in his favour. It is also equally predictable that India and the United States, the two major external players in Nepal’s politics, will not feel comfortable seeing someone in their security radar taking over as executive head of Nepal — a country that is so important for both of them strategically. And of course, equally challenging will be the course that King Gyanendra will adopt. Despite the constituent assembly being under directive from the interim house to enforce republicanism by its first meeting, it does not look feasible. The first sitting will basically see the Pro-tem speaker administering oath of office to the new members of the constituent assembly. But there will neither be a government to move the bill, nor will the rules of procedure of the house be defined. Similarly, the presence of pro-monarchy parliamentarians, mainly within the Congress and UML as well as other parties, would also will be crucial factors in deciding the issue.

Moreover, as the Maoists — key players in future governance — have put forward the idea of carving Nepal into ethnic provinces, the country is likely to get into a new phase of ethnic conflict All these developments only indicate that Nepal’s journey ahead is full of challenges. The constituent assembly poll will of course legitimise the prevailing chaos and anarchy, but there is no guarantee that it will help the country in dealing with uncertainties.

... contd.