At stake are the future course and political stability of Pakistan which is struggling with economic problems and rising Islamic militancy at a time when the United States is counting on its assistance in the war on terror.
Parliamentary elections held last month in which Musharraf’s allies were routed illustrated the growing unhappiness with the former general, who dominated Pakistan’s politics during eight years of military rule before quitting the army in November. He remains president, with sweeping powers to dismiss the parliament and prime minister.
But the transition to democracy promises to be politically turbulent as Musharraf’s manoeuvers to cling to the presidency amid the ambitions of the new civilian leaders. Voters want lawmakers to quickly dismantle Musharraf’s “one-man system” and focus their energy on bringing down double-digit inflation and tackling terrorism, said Mehdi Hasan, a prominent political analyst. “But I am not optimistic,” Hasan said, noting that Pakistan’s 60-year history is littered with failed political dawns. “It will take great efforts for the leaders of the parties to adjust and accommodate each other.”
The outgoing speaker of the National Assembly will swear in the newly elected lawmakers on Monday. Parliament will only get down to the real business of lawmaking once the new government takes office later in the month. The parties set to lead it, however, have already outlined a set of priorities that will make for uncomfortable news to Musharraf and his Western backers.
The party of slain opposition leader Benazir Bhutto won the most seats in the election. It plans to form a coalition with the party of another former premier, Nawaz Sharif, and a smaller party from the northwest - where Taliban-style militants pose an increasing threat. Bhutto’s Pakistan People’s Party has said its top priority will be to seek a UN investigation into her death in a gun-and-suicide-bomb attack on December 27.
The coalition also hopes to amend the constitution to strip Musharraf of his power to dissolve the country’s parliament and to dismiss the prime minister. The National Security Council, which gives the military a formal say in policy, may also be axed.
The coalition’s most explosive plan is the restoration of some 60 senior judges who were purged from the courts by Musharraf when he declared emergency rule last November.
Musharraf has shown no sign of heeding calls from Sharif, the prime minister ousted in Musharraf’s 1999 coup, to resign.
Members of the former ruling party point to how Sharif and Bhutto fought bitterly for power in the 1990s to argue that the newfound unity of their parties could prove short-lived. A debate is already brewing over who should be prime minister. Makhdoom Amin Fahim, a longtime Bhutto loyalist who was the initial front-runner, is resisting pressure from Sharif’s party to withdraw from the race.
Meanwhile, Musharraf has found his outside support is diminishing as well. Just months ago, the United States publicly championed Musharraf as an “indispensable” ally. Now, officials in the US government barely mention him while working to gain the favour of the newly empowered parties, even though officials say they still intend to work with the former army chief.