Prospects of a good monsoon are brighter. The global forecast models are predicting that the possibility of the occurrence of La Nina factor has increased to 50 per cent as against the earlier forecast of a low possibility.

The rainfall distribution, however, is likely to be uneven with more concentration on the west coast. This was forecast by US-based International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI).

La Nina is the cooling of Pacific water below its normal range and is responsible for heavy rains.

The four-month-long southwest monsoon usually begins its course in the mainland from June. It has arrived in the Andaman Seas on May 10, a week earlier than its usual time. According to past experiences, the early arrival of the monsoon in the Andaman Seas does not always ensure its early arrival at the Kerala coast. There are other factors to ensure further movement of monsoon, like depressions in ocean and wind direction.

“We expect arrival of monsoon at the Kerala coast slightly earlier than its due date which is around June 1. The India Meteorological Department will soon forecast its arrival date,” said the Advisor in the Union Earth Sciences Ministry, Akhilesh Gupta.

The US-based Center for Ocean Land Atmosphere Studies (COLA), however, indicated monsoon arrival at the Kerala coast between May 21 and 28. COLA has also predicted heavy rains in northeast India during this period.

The European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) has predicted a depression in the Bay of Bengal, close to the coast of Bangladesh, which may facilitate the upward movement of the monsoon.

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