This is the right time for India and the international community to think seriously about crafting a peace agreement in Sri Lanka. The history of the Sri Lankan conflict shows that neither of the two internal actors, namely the LTTE nor the government, can be relied on to make peace. Neither side has deviated from its ultimate goal: a separate Tamil state in the north east for the LTTE; and for the Sri Lankan government, it is to hold on to the territorial integrity within a centralised unitary setup. The problem is neither side is powerful enough to win nor weak enough to lose the war but both believe that they can win militarily.

How does one break the cycle? One view is that peace negotiations are possible only when there is a balance of power between the rebels and the government. The two warring sides in Sri Lanka have subscribed to this notion, but military parity has not brought an enduring peace, rather negotiations were used to regenerate military prowess, for example in 1985, 1987, 1989, 1994 and 2002.

The opposing view is that successful conflict resolution requires an imbalance of power, with the government having the upper hand. However, imbalance increases the incentive for governments to mount an all-out effort to crush the rebels — aptly captured by the Sri Lankan conflict.

It is time to try a different tack altogether. We need to start from the assumption that both sides are trapped in a cycle of conflict, and cannot break free without external intervention. The main ingredients for successful peace are well known: agreements that involve power sharing, representation, reconciliation and a longer term attempt to rebuild a common nation, underwritten by strong external guarantors. But for it to work, as conflict resolution expert Stephen Stedman points out, a common element among successful cases is the unity and coordination among external parties in defining the problem, establishing legitimacy for the strategy and applying the strategy. In Sri Lanka, the involvement of India is key to doing all three.

... contd.