But for India to succeed this time, when it failed spectacularly in the late 1980s and lost hundreds of Indian peace keeping soldiers and a former prime minister to an LTTE suicide bomber, three things are necessary. First, the external actors must speak in one voice. The international community namely Japan, the EU and the US (in order of their importance in the conflict) must agree and actively back the Indian position that Tamil grievances must be addressed within, not outside, the territorial integrity of Sri Lanka.

Second, the international community and India must back a feasible strategy to stop funding the conflict. Backing means that they must stop all arms transfers to the two sides, curb fundraising by the LTTE in the diaspora, and vet all investments in stock markets. Estimates by the Strategic Foresight Group are that the LTTE spends $200-$350 million per year on its military. The funding comes partly from illegal activities and partly from the diaspora Tamils and a host of legitimate investments, such as investments in the money markets.

Third, India should emerge front and centre in helping the two combatants to craft a political solution. India is involved and cannot afford to have failed states on its borders. The episodic influx of refugees (150,000 from the north-east) into Tamil Nadu and the use of the state as a conduit for arms smuggling to the LTTE, and the more recent use by the LTTE of the Indian stock markets make it impossible to ignore the Sri Lankan crisis. India should use arguments of economic incentives to force the two sides to compromise.

... contd.