It is a dangerous moment for the Sri Lankan nation-state. Its hapless citizens — the Sinhalese majority and the Tamil and Muslim minorities — are caught between the frequent onslaught of rebel-initiated suicide attacks, and rebel- and government-induced ‘disappearances’. Aid workers say that over 200,000 persons (mainly Tamils) are trapped in the line of fire because the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) will not let them leave. This will make it hard for the government to adhere to its policy of “zero civilian casualties.” The abrogation of the 2002 ceasefire agreement in January means neither side is constrained by internationally monitored agreements.

Over 70,000 deaths and a quarter-century of sustained fighting later, there is little change in attitudes; the actions of both the government and the Tigers privilege a military solution even as they claim to be committed to a political solution. Sri Lankans are trapped between a rock and a hard place. On the one hand, a resurgent Sri Lankan military is poised to try to deal a death-blow to the rebels: they are now at the doorstep of the Tigers’ administrative and military center at Kilinochchi, barely two kilometers away from the rebels’ city office. On the other, the rebels have resorted to a blitz of suicide attacks — six last month — in Sinhalese-majority areas of the Western and Southern provinces.

In the past, LTTE supremo Prabhakaran used suicide terrorism both from a position of weakness — when he was on the point of losing a key battle, and from a position of strength — like in 2005 when they had rearmed and no longer needed to continue peace talks. This time, Prabhakaran has launched suicide strikes because the LTTE is fighting with its back to the wall. The defection of a key aide, Karuna, who transformed his breakaway Eastern faction into a recognised political party and himself into an MP has further eroded LTTE’s monopoly. Military analysts rightly speculate that the LTTE is causing civilian casualties in Sinhalese areas to coerce the government into a ceasefire.

... contd.