The military has gained the upper hand due to several factors. First, several decades of fighting honed it into a battle-hardened corps. After a year-long military stalemate, its morale was boosted by recent successes in capturing key LTTE positions including a key coastal port of Vidattaltivu, across the narrow Palk Strait. This has weakened the LTTE’s ability to maintain a reliable supply of arms, among other things. Second, the military budget got large infusions of additional funds under President Rajapakse who publicly proclaimed his intention to defeat the LTTE. Third, the global war against terrorism has provided more armaments and surveillance technology to the Sri Lankan military, while reducing the flow of arms and funds to the LTTE. The Indian government signed agreements to train the Sri Lankan military and supply ‘non-lethal’ military hardware, while its security forces have cracked down on LTTE operatives in Tamil Nadu and provided crucial information that enabled the Sri Lankan navy to sink the Tigers’ supply vessels. Stringent bans on the LTTE hit its funding pipeline from among the Tamil diaspora in the West

It is difficult to achieve decisive victory over the LTTE: in the past, the Tigers just retreated to the jungles. Some argue, though, that the military is thrice the size today and has adopted small-unit commando tactics with improved weaponry.

But even if the military beats the Tigers, thegovernment’s heavy-handedness towards its Tamil minorities does not bode well for a reduction in anti-Tamil chauvinism, the original trigger for the rise of the LTTE. The government has already tightened surveillance in Colombo including conducting a census to identify Tamils from the North and the East. This has triggered concerns about racial profiling and harassment of minorities. Worryingly, concern about terrorism muted international criticism.

... contd.