It has been one year since the Sri Lankan security forces ‘liberated’ the whole of the east from the LTTE and shifted their operations to Mannar in the west with an objective to capture the remaining areas in one year. How successful has the government been in achieving its objective? The LTTE spoke of ‘strategic retreat’ from the east and vowed to ‘give a fitting reply to the government’. Were the Tigers able to achieve their goal? Where is the conflict heading? Is there any scope for peace in the near future?

Since the ‘one year’ deadline has gone, the Army commander, Lt. Gen. Sarath Fonseka, has revised the target to one more year to ‘finish the LTTE’. In the past year, however, according to the Army chief, the LTTE has ‘lost the capability to fight as a conventional force’ due to the relentless ‘overall military strategy’. The present strategy of the military is ‘not just go for terrains, but [to] go for the kill’. The Army claims to have killed 9000 Tigers by losing 1700 of its personnel since August 2006. If this strategy is sustained, the Army feels that in a year’s time the Tigers would be reduced to nothing more than a ‘rag-tag terrorist outfit’. The LTTE already has lost key leaders like Tamilselvan to such strategy carried out by ‘deep penetration units’ with incessant air strikes. It is true that the government forces could make advances in the southwest breaching the forward defence lines of the LTTE in the district of Mannar. There are some successes along Vavuniya and Welioya in the south. Overall, about 150 square kms were captured from the LTTE. The plan now is to gradually encircle Kilinochchi, the LTTE’s administrative capital, from all sides.

... contd.