A study of state GDP trends by Bibek Debroy and me showed that if past trends in per capita state GDP were to continue all the way till 2020, the differences in income and lifestyles between states would widen greatly. States such as Bihar would have a standard of living in 2020 much like what exists in Bangladesh today; and there would be parts of India not very different from lifestyles in developed countries such as the US and Germany (as measured in PPP terms). The point here is not what will happen, but economic forces that are being generated are going to create great pressure for people to migrate — from low wage locations to higher wage ones, and from low growth locations to high growth ones.

So what we are about to see is the greatest peaceful and spontaneous movement of people in our country’s history. The bulk of this movement would be of people who are less educated, poor, have little skills; and with the break-up of the joint family, they will be more likely to bring their whole families with them. These migrants will benefit from the opportunities and also contribute in a large way to the progress of the locations that they migrate to. For one, they will keep the wage inflationary pressures down, the need to survive and create a new life will ensure relatively greater levels of effort whether they are employed or self-employed.

However, the recent killings in Assam and Noida have one commonality — the susceptibility of migrants, and the inability of the state to provide the necessary protection. In Assam it is the seasonal migrants living in rural hinterlands. In Noida the bulk of the children belonged to recent migrants into India’s political centre. Both went unprotected. But the lack of protection is only one among a much larger set of problems faced by migrants.

... contd.