No hostages

A recent paper in the Journal of Climate from researchers at MIT revised their estimate of a global temperature rise this century from 4 degrees to more than 9 degrees Celsius. As models become more precise,the probability of catastrophe continually seems to rise. India is on the frontline; its vast river deltas are at risk to sea flooding,its huge agricultural population depends on the fragile monsoon or on snow-fed dams. One year ago,the PM released a national action plan on climate change. It is time to convert that into action. But there are significant roadblocks ahead.

First,theres the upcoming conference in Italy at which observers from India must continue to make the case that industrialised countries,as the historical prime causers of climate change,need to commit to binding emissions cuts without expecting concomitant cuts from countries that are nowhere near their levels of emissions,such as India. Then there is the bill that has just been passed by the US Congress. It finally puts into operation a cap-and-trade system for emissions which,while economists would prefer a straightforward carbon tax,does have some things to recommend it. But it is evasive on bio-fuels and contains loopholes for polluters.

But there is one massive problem that directly impacts India. The bill,as originally drafted,contained a provision that allowed the president to impose trade restrictions on other countries if they do not put similar emissions-cutting systems in place. This was a terrible idea,and a sell-out to the labour-and-environment-standards,or crypto-protectionist wing,of the Democratic Party,and to powerful trade unions. But at the last minute it got worse: it now makes the imposition of tariffs mandatory. Both the Indian executive,in the person of Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh,and the US executive,through President Obama himself,have correctly pointed out that this is an unfair,and possibly illegal,restriction on trade. India must use every diplomatic tool to ensure that this appalling clause is deleted before the bill passes the Senate and becomes law. It is not in either Indias or the USs interest to further constrict world trade at this time; and given that this is a measure directly aimed at India,its lobbyists in Washington must take the lead in making the case for its removal to the US Senate.