As the country speculates on the possibility and the outcome of a mid-term poll, The Indian Express with CNN-IBN and CNBC-TV18 commissioned the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) to carry out a mock mid-term poll in 18 big states across the country. The 18,750 people interviewed for this poll were a miniature India: 73 per cent rural, 45 per cent women, 11 per cent Muslims and 18 per cent Dalits.

The verdict is unambiguous: a majority of the country’s electors have not even heard about the possibility of mid-term polls and hardly anyone wants these polls. But if it’s forced on the voters, the Left and the NDA are the ones who need to worry. For, despite the first signs of anti-incumbency, the UPA is set to come back to power, just short of a majority but leaving the NDA far behind.

And, no, it’s not the Indo-US nuclear deal that has exhausted the patience of the aam admi. The voters are either unaware or benignly indifferent or mildly supportive of this deal. If the aam admi is beginning to be unhappy about one thing, it’s the economy. He calls it by various names: price rise or unemployment or deteriorating conditions of the farmers. Just like the last time, this time too, the rich are seen as the prime beneficiaries of economic policy. Add to it strong popular anxieties on corruption and terrorism and you know why even the UPA can’t take the voter for granted.

... contd.