This would change the political equation radically. The UPA may not need a major ally at all or may be able to substitute the Left by the BSP as its partner.

Major losses in Kerala would bring the Left’s tally down to 45 seats. The BSP would improve its tally to 35 seats and register significant gains in some states outside UP. With only 49 seats, the newly formed UNPA would have fallen far short of its ambition of playing the kingmaker.

The poll shows that the biggest losses for the NDA are likely to come from the BJP-ruled states like Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh where the wheel of incumbency has turned against the ruling party. Gujarat continues to defy anti-incumbency as the BJP appears clearly ahead of the Congress in the parliamentary and the Assembly election race.

The BJP’s allies are likely to help the NDA hang on to its current position in Orissa, Punjab and Bihar, but the alliance in Karnataka does not seem to be yielding much dividends for the Lok Sabha elections. The Congress is likely to suffer some losses in Andhra Pradesh, Haryana and Delhi but the tide has not turned fully against the ruling party.

The UPA allies are poised comfortably in Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra. The situation in Uttar Pradesh has not changed much since the assembly elections, except that the two national parties are likely to gain some ground at the expense of both the big regional parties if the Lok Sabha elections are held.

... contd.