Normal monsoon rain: Summer prediction at SASCOF

The second South Asian Climate Outlook Forum held at Punes Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology from April 13-15 has given a consensus outlook of the 2011 southwest monsoon rainfall over South Asia,saying it will be within the normal range.

The second South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-2) held at Punes Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) from April 13-15 has given a consensus outlook of the 2011 southwest monsoon rainfall over South Asia,saying it will be within the normal range.

The scientists from across the world came to the consensus after deliberations and expert assessment of available indications. The scientists based the theory on various prevailing global climate conditions and forecasts from different empirical and dynamical climate models. According to the statement issued by the team,the outlook indicates slightly enhanced likelihood for below normal rainfall conditions over the northwestern parts and some northeastern parts of South Asia.

The statement also mentions that there is slightly enhanced likelihood of above normal rainfall over the southern parts of South Asia,including the islands. Rainfall conditions close to the normal are more likely over the remaining parts of South Asia.

The training workshop was attended by representatives from six South Asian countries,namely Bangladesh,Bhutan,India,Maldives,Nepal,and Sri Lanka. Experts from the IMD and the IITM,Pune,National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP),USA,Meteo France,France,International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI),USA,participated in the training workshop. The Forum deliberated on various observed and emerging climatic features that are known to influence the performance of the monsoon,such as sea-surface temperature conditions over the equatorial Pacific and the Indian Oceans,winter and spring snow cover and surface temperature anomalies over Northern Hemisphere.