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North by northwest

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  • With speculation rife over what may come of Saudi-brokered talks between envoys of Afghanistan’s Hamid Karzai government and the Taliban, Alia Allana reconstructs the timeline that brought the region to this juncture:

    2001: Operation Ensuring Freedom launched: Initial successes are seen on the onset of the war in Afghanistan where six cities fall in 5 days; the Taliban regime collapses in December. An interim government is set up under Pashtun royalist Hamid Karzai and the first batch of the Afghan army trained. However, Taliban continue to rule in isolated pockets; Mullah Omar and tribal leaders are still active.

    2002: Terror on the rise: 21 attacks particularly in the South. Karzai talks with the US for an increase in troops — his government is faced with increased insurgent attacks — the US refuses. Amidst civil unrest — Bush promises Afghanistan its own “Marshall Plan” which fails to materialise. UN resolution sets up International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) with proposal for NATO troops to be sent into Kabul and surrounding areas to stabilise the country and set up conditions for self-sustaining peace.

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    2003: The return of the Taliban: First batch of NATO troops set off for Kabul. Taliban start returning back from Pakistan, Karzai government is in financial turmoil, instability in the country increases. Tribal militias provide security in areas ignored by Karzai and the US. The summer sees the worse terrorist attack to date — whilst Rumsfeld announces the end of combat in Afghanistan — aid promised instead. US turn its focus to the war in the Iraq.

    2004: Constitutional compromise: Karzai attempts to calm civil unrest in the country — a new multi-party democratic constitution is signed, and elections are held in October. In response terrorist attacks at an all time high during the year. The media continues to develop.

    2005: Terror spreads: Civil unrest continues to increase, amidst constitutional amendments. Terrorist activity increases and spread throughout the country. Insurgent attacks in Kandahar, Kabul, Nuristan and Herat.

    2006: The Taliban react: Failures in Afghanistan are evident given the collapse of the economy — opium production at 92 per cent. The Taliban launch their largest offensive to date; fighting between NATO troops and the Taliban, after which NATO assumes the role of securing Afghanistan. NATO troops at an all time high — 31,000 troops that are now also responsible for Eastern Afghanistan. Afghan-Pak relations are strained over security in border areas.

    2007: NATO in action: NATO block the Taliban from launching a major offensive while Bush argues for more aid — $10.6 billion; civil unrest at an all time high. Karzai says the situation has “definitely deteriorated.” US Secretary of Defence, Gates, recommends an increase in troops. The Taliban occupy the town of Musa Qala.

    2008: Toying with peace-talks: 2008 has seen a rise in the levels of violence and an expansion of the combat zone towards the Pakistani border; in response, the British commander has said, “an absolute military victory in Afghanistan is impossible.” The Americans, arguing against this statement, are looking to increase the number of troops in Afghanistan, while the official NATO mandate expires on Sunday. 4,700 people have died this year in Afganistan (Associated Press estimate) and the Karzai government is increasingly being viewed as defunct. It is against this backdrop that the Karzai government has found an ally in Saudi Arabia. It has been reported that the King has mediated talks between Karzai and a leading Taliban official in order to broker some sort of peace deal.

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