Just a fortnight into the new year, it might seem a little premature to predict what lies ahead. But one thing can be said with a fair degree of certainty. If the last couple of years were dominated by issues of governance — marked by landmark legislations, major foreign policy initiatives, continuation of economic reforms and consolidation of the unique power-sharing arrangement underpinning the UPA alliance — 2007 will see a return to the hurly burly of old-fashioned politics. It is dotted with elections in different parts of the country and nothing stirs even the most somnolent Indian politician more than electoral heat and dust. And nothing has a greater impact on the morale of a political party than victory or defeat at the hustings.

There have been a number of assembly elections since the cataclysmic 2004 Lok Sabha polls but most of them — Bihar, West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu — did not involve the Big Two of national politics in a significant way. The Congress was expected to lose West Bengal and Kerala and it did. The fight in Bihar was essentially between two regional players. Ditto in Tamil Nadu.

But 2007 is different. Both the Congress and BJP have very high stakes in most of the poll-bound states, and how they fare will substantially impact national politics and set the stage for the general elections scheduled for mid-2009.

The attention of the political class may be fixated on UP, but elections next month to three smaller assemblies are equally important. For one, in all three states — Uttarakhand, Punjab, and Manipur — the Congress is in power. Unlike in UP and Bihar, where the Congress organisation has shrunk to a pathetic shadow of its once formidable self, the party still has grassroots presence in these states.

... contd.