Even detractors of Amarinder Singh and N.D. Tiwari concede that there has been a lot of developmental work under their rule and while charges of corruption have not been absent, no major scandal has rocked either Punjab or Uttarakhand.

The real problem, Congressmen privately concede, is the rampant infighting in both states. But the Congress High Command has taken a tough line of late. Realising the importance of the election results, Sonia Gandhi has laid down the law to factional heads — unite or perish. The election results will show how far her writ runs. Of course, a defeat can always be attributed to that catch-all excuse — “anti-incumbency” — but it will also be seen as a failure of the central leadership in making the state units fall in line.

These elections are also a mini-referendum of sorts on the Centre’s image and policies. It is commonly believed that both Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi enjoy high popular ratings, greater than when the UPA initially assumed office.

The BJP is directly pitted against the Congress in Uttarakhand and the Akali Dal-BJP alliance is set to give a tough fight in Punjab. For the BJP, buoyant after the good showing in the UP municipal elections, these two states are crucial. If the party manages to win one or both, it would give a big boost to its already inflated hopes of doing much better than expected in UP.

The elections in UP might not throw up a clear winner but it will provide the laboratory for the next stage of coalitional deal-making. Tragically enough, the Congress party did nothing over the last two years to capitalise on the goodwill and nostalgia for the Grand Old Party that was so palpable in the run-up to the 2004 general elections. Congressmen squandered their energies in a futile wait for Rahul ‘Godot’ Gandhi and are now hoping to play a role in forming the next government in Lucknow if they manage a “respectable” 40-odd seats, in a House of 403.

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