The BJP, on the other hand, is pinning its hopes on the return of the urban middle class and upper castes to its Hindutva fold. If the BJP does manage to better the 89 seats it won last time, it will certainly lead to a new churning in national politics.

The UP elections will be followed by polls in Goa — another state where a Congress government will face a challenge from its national rival BJP — before we witness the mother of all political-cum-ideological contests in Gujarat towards the end of the year. After being almost comatose for years, the Congress has begun to show faint stirrings of life in the state, especially in its erstwhile support base of dalits, adivasis and Muslims. But Narendra Modi, seemingly indomitable with his hyped-up ‘vibrant Gujarat’ campaigns, faces an even bigger challenge from within. His detractors within the BJP and the wider Sangh Parivar are lying low but could make things difficult for him as elections draw near.

In fact, the results of UP and Gujarat are likely to have a major impact on the internal dynamics of the BJP as well. If the BJP does well in UP, Rajnath Singh will emerge as the strongest leader among the GenNext waiting to displace the old guard. But if Narendra Modi manages to repeat his 2002 victory, he could displace Singh as the future supremo of the BJP.

Then there are Jharkhand and Karnataka, where unstable ruling coalitions could well topple some time this year and join the list of poll-bound states. Regional parties apart, the Congress and BJP also have big stakes in Bangalore as much as Ranchi.

... contd.