Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is visiting India when the conservatives have further entrenched themselves in the Iranian power structure by winning two-thirds of seats in the recent parliamentary elections. Though the reformists have underlined their decent performance despite the heavy restrictions placed on their operations, it is being pointed out that a new “radical conservatism” is gaining momentum in Iran that is beholden to his agenda. In such a political milieu, Ahmadinejad will continue to use the nuclear issue to shore up his domestic support base, especially as dissatisfaction increases with his economic policies.

Ever since the United States and India embarked on the journey to transform their ties by changing the global nuclear order to accommodate India, Iran has emerged as a litmus test that India has to pass, from time to time, to the satisfaction of the US policy-makers. Yet, the American focus on India-Iran ties has been highly disproportionate to the substantive realities that underpin this relationship, a result more of a response to the exigencies of domestic politics than to the regional political realities. Interestingly, the Indian Left has also made Iran an issue emblematic of India’s “strategic autonomy” and has used this stick to coerce the Indian government into following an ideological foreign policy. A close examination of the India-Iran relationship reveals an underdeveloped relationship despite all the spin being put on it by both sides.

On the crucial issue of energy, Iran supplies only about 8 per cent of Indian oil imports compared to Saudi Arabia’s around 30 per cent. Moreover, both the major energy deals signed by the two sides are in limbo as of now. India’s 25-year $22 billion worth agreement with Iran for the supply of LNG has not moved an inch since 2005 as it requires India to build an LNG plant in Iran which would need American components and this might end up violating the US Iran-Libya Sanctions Act. The other project involving the construction of a 1700 mile, $7 billion pipeline to carry natural gas from Iran to India via Pakistan is also stuck for many reasons. Both projects have also brought home to Indians the unreliability of Iran as a trade partner. There are also differences between the national oil companies of Iran and India over the legal interpretation of the contract for the export of LNG to India.

... contd.