According to senior NSCN(I-M) functionaries and Intelligence sources, Swu has already quietly exited the country, and Muivah’s stay will depend on the outcome of the talks on Wednesday in New Delhi. Muivah is currently in the national capital accompanied by other leaders.

Both the NSCN(I-M) leaders have been staying at the outfit’s Camp Hebron headquarters in Dimapur since last December. During this period, there have been at least three meetings, including delegation-level talks between the Centre’s interlocutors and the rebel leadership, both at Dimapur and New Delhi. In the first round of talks held after Muivah’s return on March 4, the Centre significantly ruled out any role for Dutch conflict resolution agency NGO Kreddha International, which had been brought in by the NSCN(I-M) as a consultant and a neutral mediator.

Although that round of talks proved inconclusive, the groundwork had been done for the indefinite extension of ceasefire, which meant all future talks would be concentrated on resolution only. However, opposition by the Assam Rifles (AR) to an unauthorised NSCN(I-M) camp in Zunheboto district led to last week’s special meeting of the Cease Fire Monitoring Group (CFMG). The Naga outfit’s leaders complained about the “high-handed” attitude of the AR and threatened to abrogate the ceasefire.

The Naga team’s Brig Phunthing Shimrang, while confirming Swu’s exit, told The Indian Express on Tuesday that the outcome of Wednesday’s talks would be important. “The AR is providing all kind of support to the NSCN(Khaplang) faction, and just because they have military strength doesn’t mean they can tell us where to set up our camp, designated or not. Muivah may or may not return to Nagaland from New Delhi. It depends on how the talks progress,” Shimrang said.

In another development last month, Lt-Gen (retd) R V Kulkarni, chairman, Cease Fire Monitoring Group (CFMG), asked the NSCN(I-M) and the NSCN(K) to vacate Kohima and its surrounding areas before September 25, citing reports of a massive concentration of armed cadres in the region. They has indicated their willingness to cooperate with the order, but the unauthorised camp issue has once again brought matters to a head of sorts. The June 30 deadline set by the CFMG for all cadres of both factions to return to their camps has also gone unheeded, with 45 per cent I-M cadres and 80 per cent of K cadres said to be moving freely with arms.

However, sources close to the peace talks machinery said too much shouldn’t be read into the rhetoric from the NSCN(I-M) and the AR. Since the ceasefire agreement was struck in 1997, both sides have met over 50 times in destinations ranging from Bangkok and Chiangmai in Thailand to Amsterdam and Paris, as well as Nagaland and New Delhi. While the current perspective is to look at the peace talks in its entirety since 1997, many of the meetings have been primarily for ceasefire extensions. Sources said that Union Minister Oscar Fernandes’ entry into the talks has got things moving, but added that the Centre isn’t too bothered with finding a permanent solution.

Violence, however, has continued unabated. Earlier this year, Nagaland Home Minister Thenucho told the state Assembly that 378 factional clashes between March 2003 and 2007 had claimed 270 lives, including 35 civilians. This year alone, 40 I-M and 23 K cadres have been reportedly killed, while 14 civilians have lost their lives in internecine clashes till date. The number could be more for NSCN(K), with around 100 cadres of both the K faction and the ULFA reportedly killed in February, during strikes by the Myanmar Army on militant camps in the Sagaing region bordering Nagaland.

Now, with mid-term elections looking more possible, apprehensions are being raised that the peace process would be stalled till a new government takes over at the Centre. In that case, Wednesday’s meeting could well be the last for some time to come.