If the US administration, exhausted by the drawn-out negotiations, perhaps not itself convinced of their own case for exceptionalising India and suffering from end-of-term syndrome, is unable (or unwilling) to exercise that power, India will have no option but to “walk away” once again.

The decision is, no doubt, a political one; it is also a substantive one, one which could either strengthen the positions of the genuine non-proliferationists at the forthcoming 2010 NPT Review Conference, or could condemn it to a replay of the previous conferences, with stale debates and repetitive speeches, not to mention disagreements even on agendas. For India, there would be no separation plan, no additional safeguards; India would be free to cut her ambitions to source her energy requirements from nuclear sources, her strategic programme would remain on course though her international relations will, necessarily, be impacted. Clearly, the government has not shut the door, recognising that being part of and in a sense a part-initiator of such major changes, patience and perseverance are more likely to succeed than an abrupt termination of negotiations, the latter being more characteristic of a weaker state than India is today.

The fact that the NSG has decided on dates for the next meeting would seem to indicate a willingness to bring the issue to a successful conclusion — the postponement not being open-ended. There appears to be a feeling that such disagreements that do exist can be met by a drafting exercise. The intervening two weeks should, however, see more political than clerical activity, more pressure on arms than on elbows.

... contd.