Opinion Nuclear Iran and the Gulf: Can India make a difference?

For all the noise that emanates from New York,Iran knows that the UNSC is the emperor without clothes. Absent the political will from the great powers to use force,there is no reason for Tehran to blink.

The Iranian leadership is betting,rightly,that after Afghanistan and Iraq,Washington has no stomach for another military adventure. What about Israel? Is it not itching to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities?

Here again Iran might assess that Washington will keep a tight leash on Tel Aviv; because it the US that will have to face popular anger in the Middle East if Israel acts against Iran as well as a broader conflict in the region with major international repercussions.

As the talk-shop in New York gets all the international attention,the real strategic action is in the Gulf,where Washington is moving swiftly to strengthen its security assurances to the nervous Arabs.

While Iranian nuclear weapons might be some distance away,the Arab governments in the region are beginning to focus on the development of their own nuclear programmes.

Washington is announcing additional weapons sales to the Gulf States and beefing up its naval presence in the region. More immediately,the US needs to closely coordinate its Iran strategy with the Arab neighbours of Iran in the Gulf.

That seems to be the purpose of the US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s planned visit to the Gulf this week. Clinton hopes to persuade the Gulf States to lobby Beijing to support sanctions against Iran. That in turn is likely to raise China’s weight in the Gulf,and increase its leverage with both Iran and the Arab states in the Gulf,including Saudi Arabia.

Amidst this new power play,India needs to go beyond its traditional posturing to the domestic audiences by banal calls for a peaceful resolution of the nuclear dispute between Iran and the international community.

The real issue in the Gulf is about preserving the balance of power between Iran and its Arab neighbours. For India,the question then is whether it can contribute effectively to regional stability in its extended neighbourhood. This is a theme that should be at the top of the agenda when Prime Minister Manmohan Singh visits Saudi Arabia next month.

(C. Raja Mohan is Henry A. Kissinger Chair in Foreign Policy and International Relations at the Library of Congress,Washington DC)