A number of radical changes can be expected from an Obama foreign policy, some of which will directly affect India. Obama and his foreign policy advisers will almost certainly emphasise a renewal of the non-proliferation agenda. Although the exact shape and scope of their policies is uncertain, it would likely involve a revival of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, especially if the Democrats were to win at least 60 seats in the Senate. It may also mean altering or amending aspects of the civilian nuclear deal with India.

“The Democrats are much more likely to want to revisit the nuclear proliferation implications [of the nuclear deal],” says Bruce Riedel, the former National Security Council Senior Director for Near East and South Asian Affairs, who is among Obama’s advisers. “That would complicate the relationship with New Delhi.”

However, Obama and his fellow Democrats’ emphasis on a stringent climate regime to succeed the Kyoto Protocol may be at odds with the non-proliferation agenda, as civilian nuclear energy begins to be viewed more widely as a clean alternative to fossil fuels. “This gets into priorities,” says Riedel. “Once there’s a new president there’ll be a jockeying for what the priority will be.”

Regardless of the nuclear dimensions of the relationship, there is a feeling that an Obama presidency would continue emphasising the importance of a growing India. “There’s talk of a strategic partnership with India. The Obama campaign buys into that,” says Riedel. “As president, he will place the same priority on India as Bush did, and Clinton did before him.” Philip Gordon, another Obama adviser who was Director for European Affairs in Clinton’s National Security Council, agrees. “India is an increasingly important country,” he says. “It’s a recognition of reality.”

... contd.