The widespread speculation that Obama will include leading Republicans in his administration may also assuage fears in New Delhi of a significant break from Bush’s policies towards India. “Obama has a big theme of bringing people together,” says Gordon. “It’s an obvious way of manifesting his interest in working across party lines.”

The crucial issue in the region, however, is the United States’ continuing involvement in Afghanistan and, in that context, its relationship with Pakistan. Obama would likely favour the retention of a military presence in Afghanistan under a NATO banner. “Obama has repeatedly stated that not enough attention has been paid to Afghanistan and Pakistan,” says Gordon.

Riedel agrees that there will be a renewed focus on Afghanistan and Pakistan under an Obama presidency. “Obama is determined to put a lot more resources into the war in Afghanistan — and it’s overlapped into Pakistan — than either a McCain presidency would or the Bush administration did.” He adds that Obama sees Afghanistan and Pakistan as “the central front of the war against al Qaeda and the war against extremism.”

While Obama may take a tougher line with Pakistan, and make military aid conditional upon Pakistan’s performance in combating the Taliban and al Qaeda, Riedel disagrees with the view, prevalent in Pakistan, that Obama dislikes that country. Instead, he says that Obama is a strong critic of the “Musharraf-centric Pakistan policy” being pursued by the Bush Administration. He believes that Obama is likely to be supportive of the present PPP-led government, unless it were to engage the Taliban, a move which would prove extremely unpopular in the United States.

... contd.