vote. But disproportionate attention to “Leaders” and their “comments” has resulted in misplaced moans of an

“issue-less” election, how it’s a “fractured”, “local” election and so on.

Actually, it promises to be one with serious implications and packed with potential turning points, and possibly tectonic shifts in Indian politics.

First, of course, the obvious one: this is an election on a new map; mint-fresh constituencies, and a record number of “the young” as voters, promise to make this verdict a benchmark for trends, aspirations and possibly new lines that divide opinion.

On a less-obvious note, after 1989, which saw the Congress struggle to save its structure (even party office buildings in states it had lorded it over, like UP), this is the first election where the GOP is not fighting on agendas set by others — it is an election, where mandal and kamandal (the caste and religion genies, unleashed dramatically by the Mandal Report and the Ayodhya Rath Yatra) are not the only dominant lines, distorting others. Of course, they colour the atmosphere; but the electric shock they introduced into the north Indian system two decades ago is now a steady pulse, one that the Congress is coping with without just being in reactive mode. Whatever may be the verdict, the parameters of the debate are not just identity questions that umbrella coalitions like the Congress find very difficult to defend with any skill — but of what governments and parties are claiming they have done for the country (the common man, the poor, the thickened and increasingly vocal middle class in cities and villages). In that sense, the tone is set by the NREGA; several food, health and housing schemes in states like Andhra Pradesh, Bihar and Chhatisgarh have dominated the agenda, and forced the opposition there and nationally to follow suit. It may well be a “full-circle” election for those who made hay in the post-Mandal days. The Fourth Front is anxious to rescue its politics — the pitch of OBC consolidation is beginning to smack of desperation. This is a complete shift from what was the case in 1989 and 1991 or even 1998 or 1999. 

Reports from the states point to a major common national denominator in this campaign, a strong, argumentative and aspirational vote, which now expects better delivery and attention. Even in UP and Bihar, considered the caste cauldron, voters are complementing caste and kinship bonds with abilities and perceptions about how parties maintain social cohesion and could deliver what they now demand as their due. 

This is also perhaps the first election where some parties are in the fray as a Third Front, the first time that a “Front” has been forcefully projected before the polls. Even in 1996 (which eventually led to the formation of the United Front), it was the “NF” and “LF”, quite distinct entities, which went into the polls — never a “Front” beforehand. The results of this posturing, (hope proponents of the Front), would strengthen their hands. But it is possible that the resultant vector could result in strengthening the two national parties as several voters fear the worst, with “instability” at a time of such sub-

continental volatility as now.

Meanwhile, the worldwide recession has also led to the BJP deftly trying to claim that “the BJP understands the economy better than the Congress” (Yashwant Sinha said as much on Monday.). A race is on between the two big parties to arrogate to themselves more talent in coping with the economic crisis. There is no new worldview they offer; but both seem to understand that it is very much a factor in political choice, especially in areas hit by severe job losses due to the downturn in exports. (The two phases to come include western UP and Tamil Nadu — both big export hubs.)

Thus high prices and job cuts might all be very much on voters’ agendas, but their conclusions to those problems need not be simple: they needn’t be interpreted as straight-off

anti-incumbency.

Still, with the Congress and the BJP leading different state governments, analysts, and the parties themselves, are perplexed trying to second-guess whether anti-incumbency will land at the state government’s door or at the Centre’s. 

So it is naturally a tough one to predict. But that should not mislead analysts into dismissing the voter as not having “issues” — it is us, who perhaps lack the vocabulary to explain the changes afoot. Maybe we will have a different story to tell next Saturday.

seema.chishti@expressindia.com